US Presidential Election 2024: Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump – Who is better for India?

US Presidential Election 2024: With US Election 2024 less than two weeks away, India is closely watching the contest between Republican Nominee Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Kamala Harris.

A recent Reuters poll predicted that Harris held a marginal 3 percentage-point lead over Trump in the US Presidential election 2024. The outcome on November 5 could impact India-US bilateral ties in defence, trade, and strategic sectors.

A victory for Trump or Harris could reshape India-US ties, alter strategies, and impact the role India plays in global geopolitics – especiallywith respect to rising China, the crisis in West Asia, and Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine.

As election campaign heats up, Mint takes a look at who will be better for India as US President – Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?

In August, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said India will be able to work with the President of the United States, ‘whoever he or she will be.’

“The American system will throw up its verdict… we have every confidence that we will be able to work with the president of the United States, whoever he or she will be,” Jaishankar said at the launch of ‘Indiaspora Impact report’, a diaspora event in New Delhi

Donald Trump, the Republican Nominee

The implications of a potentialTrump presidencyin the US for India depends foreign policy, trade relations, and strategic partnerships. The overall outcome, however, would be driven by the broader geopolitical landscape and Trump’s policy decisions during his tenure.

India, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has worked with Trump in his previous term as US President between 2017 and 2021. The term saw strengthened US-India relations, highlighted by defence agreements and regional initiatives.

‘Howdy Modi!’

In September 2019, then-US President Donald Trump hosted PM Modi in Texas. The ‘Howdy, Modi!’ event in Houston was attended by about 50,000 people. A year later, Modi welcomed Trump in his home state of Gujarat for an event attended by over120,000 people.

Trump, however, lost theUS Presidential Election 2020to Joe Biden.

Analysts consider Trump, 78 more favourable for India than Harris, given his anti-China and pro-Russia positions. This despite Harris’ Indian parentage. But then, there are concerns too, especially regarding possible challenges for India in trade and tariffs during the possible Trump presidency.

Last month while campaigning in Michigan, Trump labelled India an ‘abuser’ of import tariffs while praising Modi as a ‘fantastic man.’ He also indicated that if elected, he would implement what he termed “reciprocal trade” policies.

Strategy, economy and trade

On strategic matters, Trump is expected to continue aUS-India partnershipin areas such as defence and counter-terrorism, considering the shared interest in countering China. India-US relations are often seen through the common China prism.

The US is likely to see changes in economic policies, if Trump is elected. This will certainly have ripple effects in the manufacturing and technology sectors in India.

Trump will continue his ‘America First’ and protectionist approach that could impact trade and tariff agreements.

Kamala Harris – The Indian Roots

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominne, is often seen invoking her South Asian identity. Her Shyamala Gopalan was born in Chennai before moving to the US.

Harris, 60 is the first Black woman and first person of South Asian descent to accept the US presidential nomination. The US has never had a woman President.

A potential Harris administration could result in bilateral relationship between the two nations that could be influenced by her Indian background and her administration’s foreign policy priorities.

Harris is expected to carry forward most of the trade policies established under the Joe Biden administration with focus on economic resilience and domestic manufacturing. She is also expected to continue the Biden administration’s firm stance against Russian war in Ukraine and efforts to curb Chinese influencein Asia, which resonates with India’s strategic interests.

Harris-Modi Bonding?

Harris, however, doesn’t enjoy the level of bonding with PM Modi like Trump has. As a senator, Harris had been critical of Modi’s revocation of Article 370, which stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its special status in August 2019.

A report by global financial services group Nomura said that a possible Trump administration when compared with the one led by Harris could be beneficial for India.

“A possible friction in bilateral trade due to Trump’s policies could be outweighed by supply chain benefits, and India will be a relative beneficiary due to its domestic demand-driven growth model and benefits from lower commodity prices, supply chain shifts and foreign policy,” the report said.