What Donald Trump’s win means for Indians seeking US visa, techies already holding H-1B visa and more

In his victory speech earlier on November 6 in Florida, Trump said: “Immigrants are welcome but they have to come in legally.”

The Republican leader is known to have a tough stance on immigration.

Even in his previous term, Trump, through his executive order E.O.13788 “Buy American and Hire American” increased restrictions on H-1B visas.

Earlier in the day, former Minister of State for External Affairs Shashi Tharoor told CNBC-TV18 that Trump is strongly anti-immigration, and that might affect and tighten the number of possibilities, not just for the H1-B visas that Indians want, but also for family reunions of those who have gone there, stayed on, become permanent residents, and want to get their families to join them.

This time, too, Trump plans to tighten immigration rules and reduce H-1B visas, a report by Prabhudas Lilladher noted. It also pointed out how under Trump, the number of approvals for the visa fell in 2017-18 but recovered in 2019-20.

According to Manoj Dharmani, CEO of DUDigital Global, the future of US immigration policy may see adjustments that emphasise merit-based criteria while maintaining America’s position as a destination for global talent.

“For Indian nationals, this could mean continued opportunities in specialized fields, particularly in technology, engineering, and other STEM areas, though with potentially enhanced documentation requirements and qualification criteria across various visa categories (H-1B, F-1, EB series, and H-4),” Dharmani said.

According to him, while specific policies remain to be determined, the strategic importance of US-India relations suggests that pathways will likely remain open for highly qualified professionals and students, albeit with possible modifications to existing programmes.

“Key areas that may see updates include H-1B wage requirements, post-study work opportunities for students, investment thresholds for EB-5 visas, and processing systems for employment-based green cards. The diversity visa programme might undergo review as part of broader immigration system updates, with a potential shift toward merit-based considerations,” Dharmani said.

From 88% in the 2013-2017 period, when Obama was in power, H-1B visa approvals fell to 84.5% during the Trump tenure between 2017 and 2021, according to the Prabhudas Lilladher report. However, in absolute terms, the number of visa approvals remained in a similar range of 6.67 million and 6.71 million, respectively, the report highlighted.

Also, from 2016 to 2020, H-1B denial rates averaged around 18%, compared to only 3.2% under the Biden administration. Similarly, the rate of RFEs nearly tripled under Trump, from around 12% to a peak of 34%.

The norms surrounding H-1B visas are significant for India as Indians make up a large proportion of the recipients of H-1B and other work visas granted to skilled foreign workers, many in the tech industry. The H-1B visa is a non-immigrant visa that allows US companies to employ foreign workers in speciality occupations that require theoretical or technical expertise.

Under Trump, stricter education-based norms are also likely, and that might affect unskilled workers. However, it might not affect IT services and GCC exports, the Prabhudas Lilladher report dated October 11 said.

If Trump 2.0 continues to stricten visa rules, that could make Indian workers’ access to American job markets tougher, affecting sectors dependent on skilled Indian workers, particularly in technology. Additionally, stricter immigration laws could prompt Indian tech firms to explore other markets or invest in creating more domestic opportunities.

Meanwhile, family-based visas have allowed many Indians to reunite with relatives in the US. However, Trump’s shift toward a merit-based system, which stresses skills over family ties, restricts family-based immigration to spouses and minor children. If this approach is taken, it could reduce skilled worker backlogs, though it limits family-focused immigration.

On the other hand, Harris favours policies promoting family reunification, but with over a million Indians in the family visa queue, progress has been limited.