Axis My India Maharashtra Exit Poll: Mahayuti projected to win 178-200 seats, MVA likely to get 82-102 seats

The Axis My India Exit Poll for the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections has projected the seat and vote share distribution across various political alliances, revealing the likely power dynamics in the state. The poll, which covers all 288 constituencies, provides insight into the competitive landscape ahead of the final results.

Mahayuti Alliance: Expected seat and vote share

The Mahayuti alliance, which includes the BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction), and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction), is projected to win between 178 to 200 seats, securing 48% of the vote share.

The seat distribution for Mahayuti is as follows:

BJP: 98 to 107 seats

Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction): 53 to 58 seats

NCP (Ajit Pawar faction): 25 to 30 seats

JSS/RSVA/RYSP: 2 to 5 seats

Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA): Projected seats and vote share

The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), an alliance led by the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), is projected to secure between 82 to 102 seats, with a 37% vote share.

The seat breakdown for MVA includes:

Congress: 28 to 36 seats

Shiv Sena (UBT): 26 to 32 seats

NCP (Sharad Pawar faction): 26 to 30 seats

SP/PWPI: 2 to 4 seats
Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and Others: Projected shares

The Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) is projected to secure 0 seats with a 3% vote share.

The Others category, which includes parties and independents, is expected to win 6 to 12 seats, with a 12% vote share.

This category comprises parties like BSP, MNS, AIMIM, and others.

Seats contested by parties

The following parties contested various numbers of seats across the state:

Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction): 81 seats

NCP (Ajit Pawar faction): 59 seats

Shiv Sena (UBT): 95 seats

NCP (Sharad Pawar faction): 86 seats

Margin of error

The Axis My India exit poll results come with a margin of error of +2%, meaning the final outcome could vary slightly from the projected results.

As Maharashtra awaits the official election results on November 23, the Axis My India Exit Poll provides a snapshot of the likely political scenario, with Mahayuti expected to lead, followed by MVA. However, the final outcome will depend on voter turnout and any last-minute shifts in support.